Change is the only constant in life. An old saying which is true even today. The rule of Nature is – People who embrace change and adapt – survive and people who neglect, brush aside change – perish.
Let me start with a already prevalent story. A frog is sitting in a jar set on fire. It has 2 choices – stay put and wait for the result OR Jump out. The frog stays, it’s body is losing energy to adapt to surrounding changes. The water around starts getting warmer. Again frog has above two choices, frog stays, body loses more energy to adapt. Now water starts boiling and frog decides to jump, but body has no energy to leap out & frog dies.
It’s really important to stay sensitive to changes happening to ecosystems around you & Plan the response to the change.
The Learning’s from above story–
- Surroundings, circumstances will keep on changing, stay alert.
- Act while you can still act.
Coming to the point, many people I talk to are either unaware / naive to accept that in coming 5 years the current surroundings we are in, are going to change drastically. The results can be devastating if we do not adapt .
Though this is not an exhaustive list – I will brief you on what these changes are & What industries do they affect:
- EV Penetration faster than anticipated.
- 3D Printing changing face of Machining
- Digitization
Let’s jump in & get to know: How these changes affect you and me? What do we do to respond to them?
- Electric Vehicles Penetration:
A lot of people, either ridicule the thought or they say that EV is still long way, it will not be a disruption, it will not affect the so called giant OE, etc. My observation though is a bit different.
They fail to understand that fossil fuel engine (ICE – Internal Combustion Engine) vehicles have 2000+ moving parts Vs 18+ moving parts in EV.
I have seen a few EV on road already – Revolt Bikes, Hero Scootertte, Nexon EV, Hyundai Kona. We will be seeing even more as many people will launch their vehicles over next – 3 to 6 months. Some supposedly good products will be from – Aether, Ampere, Hero Electric, Kabira mobility, etc in 2 Wheeler space. Tata, Mahindra, Hyundai, Maruti, Great Wall, etc in PV segment. Ashok Leyland, Olectra, Tata in Buses.
What Scenarios will unfold:
On an average – 35 Lac Passenger Vehicles & 1.5 Cr Two Wheeler’s are sold in India every year. Now just assume that this market grows at approx. 7% YOY. In coming year 20% of this market shifts to EV – just 20%, what happens? The growth in ICE vehicles is stalled, in fact it goes to a reduction in volumes. For efficient businesses this step is still ok, first to be in trouble are Heavy Debt companies then Low margin businesses then manpower centric businesses. Slowly if the EV starts gaining businesses this will put efficient businesses under pressure.
So in short whatever is currently happening to Real Estate over last 2/3 years will happen to Auto – CONSOLIDATION. We already see Mahindra taking in 51% stakes in Ford India, Maruti and Toyota teaming up, GM India & Thailand being sold to Great Wall.
Industries that will be hard hit – Engine Components, Transmission Manufacturers, Heavy Castings, etc.
What this implies for commoners:
- No Growth implies No major recruitment,
- Stagnant Market implies lower salary growth,
- Prospects will be limited for vertical growth.
Refer this article as well: “Some traditional auto companies won’t survive EV transition, S&P says”
- 3D Printing
Recently I attended a meeting at Big Corporate in Chennai & they showed an amazing case study of a Pump, earlier being manufactured by machining process and now changed to 3D Printing. An assembly of approx. 11 parts now being 3 D printed in one part and much lower cost and time. This is not just one example.
Though 3D Printing is yet not being widely used for Mass Production, it is already making inroads in following fields – Aerospace, Defence, Medical Body Parts, Critical components. In short anything that needs longer machining time, intricate geometries, huge material removal is already being developed in 3 D Printing.
click the following to watch videos on – First 3 D Printed Boat & Liveable houses – 3 D Printed.
What this implies for commoners:
- Lower sales of machine tools – already invested capacities will be unable to be completely booked.
- Suppliers to machine tools will be stalled.
- Again this will lead to consolidation in players who do not adapt to this changing scenario.
- Job market will be stagnant for Machine Tool & Components Industry.
- Digitization:
This simple word is about to bring in the biggest disruption our generation will ever see.
Big corporations are already moving from Manual (paper work) to digitised formats. AI will be used more prominently to fix supply chain issues, planning, scheduling, etc.
Wearable Gadgets will be taking a strong toll on regular doctors’ visits, AI clubbed with microchips and sensors will use predictable diagnosis for anticipating the diseases you may have in near future.
Online courses and degrees is already changing the face of education. The flexibility, convenience, low cost, repeating the lectures until you understand. There are many advantages.
Cameras, AI and microprocessors will change the way Traffic is handled on road / at airports / on highways.
Crime detection, Taxation, Visa process, Tolls, Ticketing, Travel, etc. there will be umpteen applications where digitization will change the world around us.
So the challenges are many and the way this affects us is Stagnant Job Market means less growth in salaries, possible threat of being redundant. So how can we react to this threat.
These Changes will Disrupt the current ecosystem & build a new one. We need to anticipate & adapt.
Opportunities this Disruption will create:
- EV will open a plethora of opportunities. Vehicle differentiation will be on features, comfort, entertainment, safety, time engagement in vehicle, etc.
- 3D Printing: Engineering, Programming, 3D Design & similar fields will be at the helm of this development.
- Digitisation: Core competence in all activities which will be digitalised, programming, AI will always be in demand.
Find opportunities in these fields and you should do good.
A few points that come to my mind for people who may not be able to adapt for some reason or other – are as follows:
- Try to contain your exposure to Debt, unwanted expenses, etc.
- Be prudent with Job Changes.
- Be prudent with Investments and expenses. Try generating multiple sources of income.
- Develop alternate expertise in the fields that are relevant in future. See how you can turn your hobbies to monetize the same.
These are a few disruptions that I anticipate, I would surely like to know from you – What are disruptions that you see in your industry? Do comment below.
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You can also check on following articles on similar topics & Marketing.
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